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Scientist from the Wissenschaftler of Münster have analysed the statistics of the German Bundesliga thoroughly and could characterise a football match as a Poisson-Process and like that made football results calculable. The crucial finding of the scientists is that goals in football are a product of coincidence. Goals, however, aren’t a sole game of dice but are influenced by the technical abilities of the players, the so called performance lev🍨el, of both teams.
In the Bundesliga a typicaღl outcome of match is determined of coinciden🍬ce by 86%. 14% are no coincidence and distinct a top team from a potential relegation team.
Stunning: All teams in the Bundesliga have about th𒉰e same conversion of chances.
Home teams score more goals on average. Average 1,66 home and 1🏅,20 away goals. There is an overall home advantage but no evidence that in addition to that teams perform especially well at home. Thus, home strength is a myth.
Typically 3 goals are scored in a match. To be precise, the n🎃umber o❀f goals has decreased over time and now amounts to 2,8.
Rather not. 46 % of all wiওns are based upon a one-goal-🌟margin.
No. Only about 25% of matches result ins draw. By imp🐬lication 75% of matches have a winner!
Yes, but since the middle of the 80s, the number of away wins is constantly getting bigger. While during the 70s distinctively more than 20% o💛f matches resulted ins away win, that figure already amounted to 33% in the season of 2010/2011.
Extraordinary: On the last two match days about 20% more goals are scored than on avera🦄ge. So: Bet on higher results!
The goal differente of past matches is espec꧂ially informative for the purpose of predictions. It is significantly more informative than the number of points. The expected amount of goals, on the other hand, is quite similar among all teams🦩.
Goalscoring opportuniti꧂es are a lot more informative for the sake of prognosis. Good teams show a slightly better conversion.
The market value of a team as deter⭕mined before the start of the season is extremely strongly correlated with their actual performance. Rule of thumb: Doubling of the market value = 10 additional points or a goal difference increased by 16 goals.
A season-specific average Performance level of a team does exist. (Performance level = goal differဣence that a team scores against an average opponent)
The coincidence averages out during the course of the season. The long🐓er the season has already progressed, the more reliable goals and opportunitiesไ display the performances of teams.
A football match is dominated by effects of coi💃ncidence. Additionally the performance level of offense and defense are correlated.
Without effects of coincidence, the d𝄹ifference of goalscoring opportunities would perfectly predict the performance level.
The goal difference is determined by effects of coi🔥ncidence with 86% (match day) or 29% (season) on average.
Fluctuations of performance 🎃levels from match day to match day are, therefore, not statistically relevant. The changes of performances levels take place during the summer break and only rare
There are no positive series. The concept of a “streak“ is, thus, void. Unfortunately this does not apply for negative series - those do exist. As Andi𒊎 Brehme famously put it: “When you got shit on your foot, you got shit on your foot!“
In the context of statistical preciseness, the conversion of effective g✤oalscoring opportunities is identical for all teams. For that reason the goalscoring opportunities are quite significant for the prediction of goals.
The performance of promoted teams is astonishingly well predeterminꦛed. Significant deviations from the lower half of the table (goal difference: -13 +/- 8) are, thus, extremely rare. For that reason a „march through“ is very special.
With the help of the market value and the effective differente of goalscoring opportunities you can co🌞me closer to the perfect prediction of th♔e second half of the season..
N🐓o. In fact only in half of the cases the𒈔 best team wins and becomes German champion at the end of the season.
No. Statistically, there are no ꦏbogey team. The scientist’s search for bogey teams was negative. Looking at it statistically the effect ♓is under 10%.
Of course we know! But it is enough for today, we will let you know anot🐽🔯her rime.