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Do not analyse matches that are too outdated<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n When analysing direct encounters, you should not go too far back in history. Encounters from the last 3 years are especially significant. If you go too far back, completely different teams, managers and thus, other tactical orientations would have dominated the match, thus affecting the result of your analysis.<\/p>\n\n
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Do not analyse too few matches<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n Don\u2019t just take one or two encounters between the two teams into account – analyse at least 3 games. There are always clashes that are out of the ordinary and that represent outliers in the statistics. To avoid this, and to be able to make a better forecast, it is important to evaluate a good number of matches.<\/p>\n\n
\n Assess Frequency Instead of Averages\n <\/h3>\n \n\n
\n Goals scored by a team may be a useful value when you assess whether to bet on Over or Under 2.5 goals or not. At the same time, they may be a bit of an annoyance. If you only consider the average figure of goals scored in a match, outliers in your statistics<\/strong> might lead you to false conclusions.<\/strong> An example from the Bundesliga season of 2014\/15 serves to underline this important point:<\/p>\n\n\n
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Example<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/div>\n \n After 12 matchdays, games played by VfB Stuttgart, which amounted to an average of 3.33 goals per match, seemed to offer safe bets for over 2.5 goals to be scored. However, after analysing each match, it soon becomes clear that this statistic is misleading. Among these 12 matches, there were 7 matches with less than 2.5 goals (and only 5 with more than 2.5 goals). In the 5 games with more than 2.5 goals, the teams scored 8, 6, 5, 4 and 5 goals. So, although the average number of goals does appear to be high, you are actually more likely to lose an Over 2.5 Goals bet than win it.<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n\n\n An example of Mainz 05 from the 2014\/15 season emphasises this further:<\/p>\n\n
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Example<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/div>\n \n Within the first 12 matches of the season, matches played by Mainz 05 displayed a goal average of 2.42 goals scored per match. At a surface glance, this seems to suggest that you should place an Under 2.5 Goals bet and expect to win it. However, if you take a closer look at each of Mainz\u2019s matches, you will find that less than 2.5 goals were scored only in 5 of their matches. In 7 matches, they actually struck more than 2.5 goals. Here, just as before, simply reviewing the individual matches can explain the supposed contradiction: among the matches with under 2.5 goals, 3 were draws without any goals scored. And, among the matches with more than 2.5 goals, there was no match where more than 4 goals were scored.<\/em><\/p><\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n\n\n Conclusion: When carrying out an Over\/Under goal analysis before placing your bet, you should refrain from mean values<\/strong> and instead include frequency in your calculations.<\/strong> Always ask yourself: in how many matches played by team X were more than (and less than) 2.5 goals scored?<\/p>\n\n\n Include More Than Just Goals in Your Statistics\n <\/h3>\n \n\n
\n Scored goals may carry significance for future results; however, you should work with more indicators<\/strong> for Over \/ Under bets to define the exact potential of a team<\/strong>. Keep in mind any shots on goal and opportunities allowed. Check the shot conversion rate: how many goalscoring opportunities does a team need to score a goal? How many goalscoring opportunities does the opponent need on average to score a goal against said team?<\/p>\n\n\n Goals might be the obvious indicator for an Over \/ Under bet. Statistically, however, goals are often volatile, and therefore do not serve as a strong enough indicator to make safe predictions for your bets.<\/p>\n\n
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Remember that most bettors only go by the end results of matches, and that bookmakers use this attitude for the creation of their odds<\/strong>. If you include more than just goals in your predictions, you can give yourself an edge<\/strong> over most bookmakers.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n\n\n Treat Short-Term Trends with Caution\n <\/h3>\n \n\n
\n The ongoing performance level of a team<\/strong> is often considered to be an important indicator for Over \/ Under bets by rookie punters. However, do not let your prediction be influenced too much by this. A high number of scored goals or goal opportunities does not always recur in future football matches, as there many different opponent factors (such as attitude and rank within the league) that have a significant impact on the number of goals. Instead, look at the last 20 matches of the team in question<\/strong>, and check how often they scored Over or Under 2.5 goals<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n Take Circumstances and Date into Account\n <\/h3>\n \n\n
\n Apart from match statistics, circumstances as well as date of the match should also be taken into account. Pay special attention to:<\/p>\n\n
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How both teams acted in similar situations<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/li>\n
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How previous games ended when one team was considered an underdog<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/li>\n
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Whether a prolific striker or an important defender will miss the match (due to illness, injury or ban)<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/li>\n
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Whether one of the teams has already reached its goals for the season (champion, retained their ranking, etc.) and might, therefore, be less motivated to score goals<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/li>\n
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How far the season already has progressed, since each phase features a higher or lower \u201cgoal probability\u201d.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n <\/li>\n <\/ul>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n If you include these factors in your analysis, you can gain a lead over many other bettors.<\/p>\n\n
\n Question Exotic Bets\n <\/h3>\n \n\n
\n Apart from data and facts which directly concern the match, it is also a good idea to question the bookmaker\u2019s odds for Over\/Under bets. Do the odds for a match seem too high to you<\/strong>?<\/p>\n\n\n Avoid betting blindly –